Karl Rove commenta la strategia di Rudy Giuliani: "E' una strategia interessante. Bisogna ricordare che nel 1992 Bill Clinton vinse le sue prime primarie in Georgia, durante il Super Tuesday. E nel 2008 il Super Tuesday arriverà molto prima di quanto non avvenne nel 1992. Voglio anche far notare che nel 2000, per John McCain, non partecipare ai caucus dell'Iowa non fu affatto fatale".

cross-posted @ The Right Nation

Des Moines (Iowa). C’erano tutti tranne uno, ieri notte in Iowa, al primo caucus elettorale del lungo e laborioso ciclo politico che nel novembre 2008 porterà all’elezione del nuovo presidente degli Stati Uniti. (...) Tutta l’America sembrava fosse in Iowa, tranne una persona. Non una qualunque, ma il candidato che i sondaggi nazionali continuano a indicare come il favorito del gruppo repubblicano: Rudy Giuliani. L’ex sindaco di New York non si è curato del caucus e ha trascorso la vigilia in New Hampshire e il giorno del voto in Florida. La strategia di Giuliani è perdere l’Iowa per conquistare l’America.

La scelta è stata in parte obbligata dal calendario e dalla tradizione politica dei primi stati in cui si è votato ieri e in cui si voterà nei prossimi giorni, ma è anche una decisione studiata a tavolino dagli strateghi di colui che la neo-obamiana Oprah Winfrey nei giorni dell’11 settembre aveva definito “America’s Mayor, il sindaco d’America”. Giuliani punta sul 29 gennaio, il giorno in cui si voterà in Florida e saranno distribuiti più della metà dei delegati. E poi sul “super tuesday” del 5 febbraio, quando si apriranno le urne negli stati più grandi.

Gli osservatori e un po’ anche i sondaggi cominciano a dubitare di questa scelta nazionale di Giuliani, ma se avrà ragione lui in fututo tutto questo clamore intorno al voto in Iowa, e poi in New Hampshire, potrebbe attenuarsi. L’approccio tradizionale, inaugurato da Jimmy Carter e Bill Clinton, è stato seguito da tutti gli altri. L’idea è che una vittoria o un buon piazzamento in Iowa e New Hampshire garantiscano un’inerzia positiva in termini di spazi tv, soldi e sondaggi necessaria a conquistare la nomination.

La candidatura di Giuliani, malgrado gli scetticismi strategici, resta quella che continua a preoccupare di più il mondo liberal. I grandi giornali non lesinano articoli e inchieste negative, volte a smontare l’immagine di leader efficiente, efficace e risoluto che Giuliani trasmette agli elettori. Il suo ultimo spot elettorale mostra le immagini di attentati terroristici, alternate a manifestazioni di radicali islamici di ogni tipo. Lo spot descrive “un nemico senza frontiere, un odio senza confini, un popolo abusato, una religione tradita, una potenza nucleare nel caos, uomini pazzi pronti a creare disordine, leader assassinati, democrazia sotto attacco e Osama bin Laden ancora minaccioso”. E, infine, conclude: “In un mondo in cui la prossima crisi sta per arrivare, l’America ha bisogno di un leader che sia pronto”.

La stampa però da mesi prova a smontare questa immagine, da ultimo il New Yorker, raccontando un Giuliani inefficiente e autore di errori decisionali che avrebbero potuto salvare parecchie vite l’11 settembre. Nel mondo dei media nessuno crede nelle sue possibilita di vittoria, eppure i democratici sono spaventati. Ai loro occhi Giuliani ha gli stessi difetti di Bush, ma al cubo: si circonda di amici da cui pretende fedeltà assoluta, non ascolta le critiche e adora esercitare fino ai limiti, se non oltre, il potere esecutivo. A New York, da sindaco, governava ingaggiando violente battaglie amministrative con avversari e critici. I liberal si chiedono con terrore che cosa potrebbe combinare nel mondo avendo a disposizione l’esercito e i codici nucleari. Giuliani spera che gli elettori si pongano la stessa domanda, perché saranno costretti a riconoscere che con lui al comando l’America sarà più protetta e sicura.

On MSNBC, Rudy Giuliani is making a very smiley, happy showing of himself. The result in Iowa could not have been better for Giuliani tactically. Romney has been injured. Huckabee won, but did not apparently win by a huge margin, and there won’t be many other states where evangelicals make up fully three-fifths of the primary electorate. And John McCain did not, it seems, come in third with a surprising showing, but fourth with a very modest showing. If McCain beats Romney in New Hampshire, Romney will have a difficult time going on — but McCain clearly hasn’t yet turned the corner and brought conservative Republicans back in his corner. And Fred Thompson’s third-place showing wasn’t impressive enough to kick his campaign back to life. With no one especially strong on the Republican side through the first few states, the Giuliani strategy of betting it all on Florida on January 29 and the big states on February 5 is looking better than it did a week ago.

Lisa Schiffren, su The Corner, ha pubblicato un interessante memo scritto da Brent Seaborn, strategy director di Team Rudy, in cui vengono delineate le linee essenziali della strategia elettorale dell'America's Mayor per le primarie. Vi proponiamo la versione integrale del documento. Tenetene conto, quando domani arriveranno i risultati (con ogni probabilità disastrosi) dei caucus in Iowa.

TO: TEAM RUDY
FROM: BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR
RE: Looking Good
DATE: December 31, 2007

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right - bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old "Carter/Clinton" approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right. As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states. Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November - December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state
Florida 30% 17%
California 29% 15%
New Jersey 38% 12%
New York 40% 12%

The Primary Calendar 2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint. Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars' strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5. For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York - tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy. Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do. The Early States The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates - the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests
Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty
1/3 Iowa 0*
1/5 Wyoming 12
1/8 New Hampshire 12
1/15 Michigan 30
1/19 Nevada 0*
1/19 South Carolina 24
1/29 Florida 57
2/1 Maine 0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state's delegates except Florida's, which will be winner-take-all. Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond's endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida's 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.
State Polling and OutlooksAs noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor's support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle. In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire. The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney's Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney's strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign. New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain's base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race. Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race. Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life an become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling. Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January. Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself. Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win. One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.

In a scathing anti-endorsement that called Romney a "disquieting figure," the New Hampshire newspaper's editorial board said he looks and acts like a presidential contender but "surely must be stopped" because he lacks the core philosophical beliefs to be a trustworthy president.

In particular, the newspaper noted the former Massachusetts governor's change of heart on such issues as abortion rights, stem-cell research and access to emergency contraception, as well as on signing an anti-tax pledge.

"When New Hampshire partisans are asked to defend the state's first-in-the-nation primary, we talk about our ability to see the candidates up close, ask tough questions and see through the baloney. If a candidate is a phony, we assure ourselves and the rest of the world, we'll know it," the newspaper said. "Mitt Romney is such a candidate. New Hampshire Republicans and independents must vote no."

(...) Since he surged, Huckabee has been getting much tougher coverage, as any reader of this blog has seen. Romney's still getting hit from a lot of different directions - his dad and Martin Luther King, his immigration positions, the usual flip-flop charges, etc. If McCain wins New Hampshire, you'll see him get coverage that's much tougher. His foes will start reciting immigrationdeal-campaignfinancereform-gangof14-votedagainst Bushtaxcuts over and over again. You'll see every picture he's ever taken with Ted Kennedy dominating the airwaves. If Fred Thompson surges, he'll get knocked around, too. And there's still some possibility of the murder-suicide effect; if any candidate goes too negative on another, the mud splashes on both of them.

So it's possible that by the time we get to Florida, most of the other Big Five have won only one or two states and has higher negatives from several tough primary battles. Rudy can swoop in, win delegate-rich Florida, and then try to execute his big state Super Duper Tuesday strategy, and pound home, electability, electability, electability...

It's not a perfect path to the nomination, but right now, no one has one...

In a baseball game, you've got to play nine innings and whoever gets the most runs at the end of the nine innings wins. So here, you've got to play in 29 primaries. Nobody's going to win all of them, that's for sure.

Una boccata d'ossigeno per Rudy nell'ultimo sondaggio Gallup per USA Today, dopo un paio di settimane davvero difficili. Giuliani in crescita (+2%) rispetto all'inizio di dicembre, ha il 27% dei consensi, con 11 punti percentuali di vantaggio su Mike Huckabee (16%). Alle loro spalle, appaiati al 14% ci sono Mitt Romney, John McCain e Fred Thompson. Lontanissimo, al 3%, Ron Paul.

Il video integrale del discorso di Rudy a Tampa.

Da The Page, il blog di Mark Halperin per The Time, pubblichiamo la versione integrale dello stump speech di Rudy ieri a Tampa (Florida).

Thank you. Tested. Ready. Now. America needs a leader. I am running for President of the United States because I believe that I can lead America into a new era with bold leadership, optimism, determination, and distinctly American solutions. If you’re looking for perfection, you’re not going to find it. Not in me, not in any candidate. But if you’re looking for a leader who has been tested in times of crisis; a leader who’s ready to lead right now; a leader who’s achieved results – results that some people thought were impossible –a leader who believes that there is no problem too difficult for American solutions and a free, American spirit. I believe I am that leader.

I’ve met adversity before. I’ve led in situations that seemed hopeless and dire, in need of a miracle. I don’t just pray for miracles. I don’t just hope for miracles. I expect miracles. Some people look at the challenges we face as a nation and they fear the future. I welcome it. I welcome the opportunity to keep America safe and secure. We will win the Terrorists’ War on Us.

I welcome the opportunity to restore fiscal discipline to Washington D.C. While we empower millions of people to move out of poverty and achieve the American dream. And I welcome the opportunity to win this election. Leading a revitalized, 50-state Republican Party into the White House.

But as I travel across our land, I’ve begun to hear a murmur that America somehow has lost the ability to achieve great goals. Some good people have come to believe that our country is on the wrong track. Middle Class families feel that the American Dream may be slipping away. They’re worried about the future. They’re worried that the future may not be as bright as the past. They’re worried that this may be the time where the next generation of Americans doesn’t do as well as the last generation. It doesn’t have to be that way. We — we, you and I — can decide America’s direction. We can determine America’s future. After all, that’s what an election is all about. So let’s decide for optimism, not pessimism; for hope, not despair; for strength, not weakness; for victory, not defeat.

We can’t afford a crisis of confidence at the time we need our confidence the most because our country does face real crisis right now. We’re at war. The American people want to see victory in Iraq and Afghanistan, not humiliation and defeat.

They want their children to live free from the fear of terrorism. They’re telling us, get it done. And we will.

Washington’s culture of wasteful spending is out of control. Everyone knows that. The American people want to see real fiscal discipline. They’re telling us, get it done. And we will.

Americans have heard presidents talk about energy independence for three decades. Now they’re paying more at the pump and they’re seeing their money go into the pockets of some of our enemies. They’re telling us, get it done. Get energy independence done. We will.

The American people are angry that the federal government has failed to protect and secure our borders. And they’re telling us, get it done. And we will.

What America needs in 2008 is a proven leader who will get things done. I’ve been tested. I’m ready. And the time is right now.

This is a time for leadership. A leader is someone who combines vision for the future with the ability to get things done. It’s a person who can dream about a better future and then help bring it into reality, actually make [is] it possible. So today, I’m going to share with you my vision for our future, for America’s future. This summer, we presented a bold agenda for the future. It was my 12 Commitments to the American people.

But today I want to explain it in a slightly different way. I want to explain it by describing my vision of the America that I want to hand over to my successor if you give me the honor of being your president. Because we all believe that everyone of us, no matter what our role or who we are in this country, all of us has an obligation, a responsibility to hand our nation to the next generation better than it was handed to us.

We’re about improving our country for the next generation. We’ve always been about that. This generation has to be about that.

So we’ll hand over an America where our schools are the best in the world – not 21st in Science, not 25th in Math like we are today. I’ve got a goal for America. How about being # 1?
We can reform education—primary and secondary education in this country and we can do it by creating and expanding school choice. We’ll empower parents – not government bureaucrats – let the parents choose where their child goes to school. Who knows better?

All children – rich and poor, middle class or otherwise – all children deserve a quality education: whether it’s public, private, parochial, charter or home-school. To me, this is the great civil rights issue of our time. Our children, all of our children, not just yours, not just mine, all of our children need a good education and if the parents are making the choice, if that’s the rule in this country and not the exception, I’m confident that the decisions will be made in their interest. They’re going to do it better than some bureaucrat who has never met their child, doesn’t know their child. So let’s give the power here, the main power to the parents.

We’ll hand over an America that embraces [is] the global economy. That needs fairness. Of course we need a level playing field, but we should be less concerned about how much we buy from overseas, except from the point of view of safety and security, that’s important. But on the economics of it, what we should really be focusing on is how much do we sell to overseas?
America is an entrepreneurial society. We should view the rise of China and India, the people moving out of poverty in China and India, we should view that as a great opportunity to find what America is always looking for: new customers. Right?

When they think of us as a country that’s militaristic, they’re wrong. The essential nature of Americans is not war. Americans only go to war when they have to and then of course we do it to win and to prevail and to be safe. So do it in a determined way. But here’s the essential nature of America and Americans. Here’s what we really want to do with you all around the world. We want to sell you something. Right?

Isn’t that what America’s all about. America is an entrepreneurial society. But we also need to keep our house in order here in the United States. We’ll hand over a country that’s more fiscally disciplined, with a government no larger than it has to be. It’ll be a country where taxes, regulations, abusive lawsuits don’t drive jobs and businesses out of the United States. And we’ll create—And we’ll create hundreds of thousands of jobs, millions of jobs, in the process. We’ll lower the income tax and the corporate tax rates. We’ll give the death tax the death penalty.

We’ll find many ways to bring tax relief to middle class families where that tax relief is needed the most. And you know what else we’re going to do? We’re going to develop a single page, one-page optional tax form. How about being able to do it all on one page? Wouldn’t that be great?
Ok. The print may be a little small.

But we’ll work real hard to get it on one page. The Democrats running for president seem to want a nanny state. They want to run your life from the cradle to the grave. We don’t want that kind of state. America’s like a country that puts reliance on individuals, on people, what they can do, what they can accomplish. America’s a country that works on initiative. And then we give people opportunity and help to have that initiative, but we don’t try to direct their lives from the day [their] they’re born until the day they die. We’ll hand off a country that doesn’t penalize success. We’ll reward success. We want a country where the “sky’s the limit”. People can reach for the stars and they can have a hope that they can get there. We don’t want to put a lid on their desires, on their ambitions. We want to encourage social mobility. What country has done it better than America in the history of the world? Move people out of poverty, create social mobility, have people in one generation go from the virtual bottom to the virtual top and all the places in between. We do that by being a country of initiative, a country that rewards success, not a country that penalizes success. So we want to encourage social mobility. That’s how we move people out of poverty. That’s how we strengthen the middle class and that’s how we bring the American dream within the reach of every willing person in this country.

Now if you keep doing that, I’m going to stop giving this speech. I’m going to go out and play football. We’ll hand over a country where decisions about your healthcare are made between you and your doctor, not between you and a Hillary-care custodian.

We can make health care more affordable, portable. We can do that through tax cuts, not tax hikes and government mandates. We can open the market, we can increase choice, we can empower individuals and all of that, all of that will drive down the cost so that people can afford health insurance and good health insurance, quality health insurance. That has to be our goal. We do it through an America, we do it through private decision-making and private markets not through socialized medicine.

We’ll hand over a country with 200 new federal judges – or 400, if you give me a second term. Well let’s work on the first one first. Ok. These judges will be responsible men and women, people who understand that their role is to interpret the Constitution, not social activists who legislate from the bench. To do anything less is to deny us the defense of liberty that comes from the separation of powers. We’ll hand over a country where we’ve ended illegal immigration where it has to be done – at the border.

And also a country who’s arms are wide open to people who come here, people who come here legally and openly. We want them, we need them, we will accept them, and what we want them to do, if they want to become citizens, is meet all the requirements and then be able to read English, write English, and speak English.

Ending illegal immigration won’t be easy. It requires changing human behavior – but it needs to be done for everyone’s good. I have the will. I have the way to do it, the plan to do it, and I have the track record to bring safety and order and fairness to a situation that is now [our] out of control. I’ve done it before, I can do it again.

We’ll hand over an America that is stronger, safer and more secure. We’ll make every community better prepared, more prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters something you know about here in Florida. The hurricanes of a few years ago where you had to deal with four all in one short season. The way you did it was a really good emergency response. The rest of the country needs to be at at least that level of preparation and we all need to be at a higher level of preparation. And as we do that, we’ll build a more resilient society – ready to withstand anything that comes our way and ready to help those in need, whenever and wherever they need it. We’re one country. We’re in this together. Natural disaster, terrorist attack, you learned here in Florida. I learned that in New York. We embrace each other.
We’ll hand over an America that is achieving energy independence. We can do it by increasing the diversity of our energy sources. And we can do it by having both a healthy environment and a healthy economy. The two things are not inconsistent with each other. The two things compliment each other if you do energy independence the right way and you move toward the right sources and you support it. And most the most important thing is we’ll approach this goal with the same single-mindedness that America used to put a man on the moon. Remember? Well, some of you don’t remember. You’re too young.

You remember. I remember. You don’t remember. But you’re going to read about this in history, because it’s one of our great historical moments. The Apollo Mission, the mission to put a man on the moon, it was started by President Eisenhower, a Republican. It was advanced greatly by President Kennedy, a Democrat. It was brought almost to its final stages by President Johnson, another Democrat, and it was completed under President Nixon, another Republican. This wasn’t a Republican success. This wasn’t a Democratic success. This was an American achievement.

That’s when we’re at our best. That’s when we’re at our best, when we’re thinking like Americans. We were at our best to put a man on the moon, we were at our best to deal with the horror and the shock and the pain and the suffering of September 11th, weren’t we? No Republicans, no Democrats just Americans. That’s what we need to achieve energy independence and then maybe we can take that sprit and we can apply it to some of these other big problems that we face. What we really need is to reaffirm and we need a new era, not of Republican success or Democratic success, how about we look for things where we can have American success.

Finally, and this is the big challenge of our generation, we’ll hand over a country that is safer, that is more secure from the Terrorists who are at war with us and around the world. We’ll do it the same way that Ronald Reagan accelerated the end of Cold War. President Reagan used to be asked in the early days of his presidency, when the Cold War was in some ways you know very intense, they’d say to him “You know this Cold War’s been going on for a long time is it ever going to end, how is it going to end? People couldn’t see an ending to it, it’d been going on for so long. Will it ever end, can it end? Ronald Reagan listened to them, paused the way he used to, put a little smile on his face and when they were asking him how would it end, he just had that little smile on his face and he said: “They Lose. We Win.”

That’s the same approach that we need to defeat these enemies that we have. We need to stay on offense in this Terrorist War against Us, achieving peace through strength, that’s the only way you achieve peace, through great strength, by being on offense, by being strong, by being confident, by having a military that we expand, not contract. We have to rebuild our military.
I have a goal in Iraq it’s not the Democrats goal, they tried to legislate loss in Iraq, they’re still trying to legislate loss in Iraq. I have a different goal. It will be a very clear decision for the American people. Here’s my goal for Iraq, victory, success for America and for our troops. Let’s achieve the goal that we went there to achieve, a stable Iraq that will act as an ally for us in the ongoing Islamic Terrorist war against us. That is a victory for us and a defeat for them.

Our men and women there believe they can achieve that. They’ve shown us unexpected progress; many people even opponents of that war have been surprised at how exceptional the progress has been. So let’s help them and support them. And let’s do the same thing in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Let’s make sure we finish the job and we eliminate Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

We will hand over an America that has stopped Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
And when we stop them we won’t just be moderately confidant but we’ll be totally sure.
But we also need to win the war of ideas and the war of ideals. Strengthening our ties with the Middle East, embracing those people in the Middle East, in the Arab world, in the Islamic world. The overwhelming majority of people who want peace, who below the cultural differences share the same values that we have. We’ve got reach out to them; we’ve got to get to know them better. We’ve got to get them to know us better. We’ve got to do more business with them. That part of the world is filled with people with the same entrepreneurial spirit that we have. The same love for their children that we have, the same desire for a safe and secure life for themselves that we have. There are a few people and more than a few but by no means anything close to a substantial proportion of people, that have perverted the thinking and turned it into a political ideology now of hatred and anger and viciousness and aggression. But that shouldn’t stop us from reaching out to all of the rest of those people who have the same desires that we have. We should actually be having more contact with, doing more business with, having more cultural relationships with the Middle East now than we have ever had before. It is another way to win the Terrorist War against all of Us. And I will do that and I will make sure that we open up in the same way that we will be strong and on offense, we will also have a very big open arm for all those people who want to work with us. We’ll embrace them, they’ll embrace us, it’s not the first time America has done that, it won’t be the last and it will work. I guarantee you it will work.

So all of this is saying that America needs bold leadership to meet these very very big challenges that we have. But I know we have the strength to hand our nation to the next generation stronger than it’s been handed to us. We have the capacity to improve things the way our fathers, grandfathers, great-grandfathers and great-grandmothers, mothers, fathers, people all over have done for us. I have faith in the Genius of America: the power of free people to solve whatever problems they face. That’s why my solutions all begin with a simple thought, a simple philosophy: Give people more power.

America’s not unique because of its central government. America is great because of self-government. We unleash the genius of America when we increase freedom. The freedom to pursue success, prosperity, happiness, fulfillment, in the way that you choose, not the way that the government dictates to you. The genius of America is you. The individual American. When you decide how to spend your money, you’ll spend it more productively than any government ever will.

When you’re the one deciding what school your child should can go to, you’ll make a much better decision than some government bureaucrat can make for a child they never met or never known. And when you decide what kind of healthcare you should have, you will make a much better decision than some government custodian can make for you.

It’s really simple. I believe in the strength and wisdom of the American people. Look at our history and you’ll see why. Because no matter when or how your ancestors came to this country, we are all the proud descendants of pioneers and patriots. They created this for us, their optimistic American spirit, the defiant determination to do what some other people thought was impossible, that is our greatest inheritance. Each generation of Americans has been called to overcome great challenges. Previous generations fought for our independence, signed the constitution, ended slavery, healed the wounds of a Civil War, settled the West, overcame the Great Depression and secured civil rights. So when we see all of that, are our challenges any greater than theirs? They won the Second World War against Nazism and fascism and the Cold War against communism. That’s the same strength that’s in each of us. We inherited it, we have it. We’ve got to believe that we do. And now it is our generation’s turn to make history in this new century. I know that this generation can overcome any challenge. I’ve seen your strength, I’ve been sustained by it.

I saw it on the morning of September 11th, 2001. There were points that day, that morning in particular where I wondered, I wondered whether we had the strength to deal with this[,] worst attack in our history, unprecedented, horrific, memories and images that will live with me until the day that I die. But immediately as a I saw the courage and the strength of our citizens and our first responders, when I saw the picture of the firefighters who put the flag up at Ground Zero, just like the Marines at Iwo Jima, many years before, looked just the same didn’t it? You know what I said to myself and this gave me great strength to get through everything. I said to myself this generation, this current generation, our generation, we’ve got the same strength, the same determination, the same patriotism because it comes from our fathers and grandfathers who won the Second World War and did all of these things. Maybe sometimes, maybe sometimes it happens when we’re put under stress and we’re put in a moment of terror and horror and it just comes out. But you know throughout history, people who live in freedom have much more strength than people who live in oppression. That’s been the story of the Old Testament, its been the story of the ancient world and the modern world. It was the story of the 20thth century taught us, if nothing else, that you have to stand up to tyrants, to bullies, to terrorists. It’s in strength that you’ll be able to achieve peace and vindicate freedom. century, people who live in freedom overcome oppression. We are on the right side of this. We have the strength, we have the ability.

With bold leadership, America will meet and exceed any challenge we face. With bold leadership, America will face the future with confidence and reclaim our right to live in freedom from fear. With bold leadership, America will rise to new heights in this still very new century. This is a time for leadership. This is a time for strength. This is a time to roll up our sleeves, not wring our hands. I’ve been Tested in crisis. I’m Ready to lead. And the time is right Now. Thank you.

(...) Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will deliver a speech Saturday aimed at laying out a broad governing vision for the country, an address his campaign is touting as a turning point in his bid for the Republican nomination. "This will be a closing statement of why he wants to be president," said a senior Giuliani adviser familiar with the speech. The broad goal, according to the adviser, is to define "what will America be like after a Giuliani presidency." For much of the campaign to date, Giuliani has talked almost exclusively about his record as mayor of New York as opposed to what he would do as president. Saturday's speech will change that, his advisers argue, with a speech that will carry the tagline: "Tested. Ready. Now."

The locale and timing of the speech send a signal of their own. Giuliani will deliver the speech in Tampa, Florida, a not so subtle symbol of the importance of the state to Giuliani's path the to the nomination. The Sunshine State and its Jan. 29 presidential primary has long been seen as Giuliani's firewall as poll after poll shows him with wide leads over all of his potential rivals. As for the timing, the Giuliani campaign believes the speech falls on perhaps on the last day before the Christmas rush begins in earnest -- wiping out the ability to firmly communicate a message to voters.

(...) ... In '98 when I had a tough election campaign here in Massachusetts, uh, he came up the final night -- the day before the election --We went to the North end of Boston -- the Italian section. We kind of had a little, uh, parade for the North end. We ended up at, uh, uh, an Italian restaurant having "pizzer" and beer. And then we went and had a couple of cigars. That's a very fond memory of Rudy helping me out when I needed some help. And he was there for me, and I'm very proud to be there for him.".

Guarda il video sul blog di Giulia NY.

(...) The question that has dominated the GOP contest is, "Should we nominate someone as liberal as Rudy on social issues?" The answer among the stalwarts is obviously no. As long as the social conservatives are divided among four candidates, Rudy has a shot. But when they rally behind one man (probably Huckabee) conservatives outnumber moderates in Republican primaries, particularly if the independents are drawn into the Democratic primary by Hillary's new vulnerability.
But by losing, Rudy shifts the focus. Republicans will ask, "Is America ready to elect a Mormon?" (unfortunately not) and, "Are we ready to go with Romney or Huckabee who have no experience in foreign or military affairs?" Once again, Rudy will profit from the shift in focus his defeat in the early contests will trigger.

(...) Remember how Gary Hart beat Mondale in New Hampshire in 1984 and Mondale came back to win? And how Paul Tsongas beat Clinton there in 1992 and Clinton eventually won? And how McCain defeated Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 but how Bush came back to win? Different year. New candidates. Same deal.

Secondo The Fix, il blog di politica del Washington Post, Mike Huckabee potrebbe avere una chance in Iowa o, perlomeno, avere un ottimo risultato. Buone notizie per Rudy Giuliani, IMHO: Mitt Romney sta investendo molto in Iowa e sarebbe il candidato maggiormente danneggiato da un'affermazione di Huckabee.

Why (and How) Huckabee Can Win Iowa -