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Thank You

Dear Friend,
Over the past year, as I traveled around the country, people from all walks of life welcomed me into their homes and communities with open arms. From house parties to parades to town halls and rallies, I have shared in some wonderful moments with you all and for that I am eternally grateful.

Thank you for sharing your concerns with me. Thank you for working with me to provide our children with a brighter and more prosperous future. Thank you for your support and trust and faith. And thank you for being a part of this wonderful journey.

A New York Republican named Teddy Roosevelt once said “aggressive fighting for the right is the noblest sport the world affords.” Like most Americans, I love competition. I don't back down from a principled fight.

But there must always be a larger purpose.

Elections are about more than just a candidate. Elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves. They are about identifying the great challenges of our time and proposing new solutions. Most of all, they are about handing our nation to the next generation better than it was handed to us.

Although we were unsuccessful in our endeavor, the fight to strengthen America goes on. Our nation's next President must understand and make a commitment to keep us on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us. He must understand that stimulating our economy requires cutting taxes, because you make better decisions with your money than Washington bureaucrats. He must be committed to ending illegal immigration and securing our borders. And he must use free-market principles to make health care more affordable for all Americans.

I believe John McCain is that man. He is the right leader to move us forward, unite our party and transform Washington. I hope that you will join me in supporting him to be the next President of the United States.

As I look forward to the road ahead, I am optimistic because I believe America's best days are still to come. Our country has a bright future, but we must work together to ensure that our shared prosperity creates new and better opportunities for us all.

Best Wishes,
Rudy Giuliani

Not Endorsed

Clear

Nel primo decennio del Ventunesimo secolo, gli Stati Uniti hanno dovuto far fronte al più mortale degli attacchi e al più distruttivo dei disastri naturali nella storia del Paese. Il termine «sicurezza interna» (homeland security) non era sul tavolo del dibattito nazionale delle elezioni del Duemila. Ora, dopo l’11 settembre e l’uragano Katrina, ogni americano comprende che la sicurezza interna è al centro delle responsabilità di un presidente...

Secondo i rapporti ufficiali, ci sono stati non meno di 14 tentativi d’attacco terroristico interno e nove complotti internazionali contro interessi e cittadini americani. C’è stato un piano per far saltare il ponte di Brooklyn e alcuni aerei sulla rotta atlantica. Dei terroristi hanno cospirato per ammazzare soldati americani a Fort Dix e pianificato di incendiare i condotti del carburante all’aeroporto internazionale Jfk. Ad oggi, non un singolo complotto «post 9/11» sul suolo statunitense ha avuto successo. Non è un caso: è la misura, a livello nazionale, dell’aumento dei controlli.

Continua a leggere l'articolo di Rudy Giuliani pubblicato su Liberal Quotidiano.

Some

The Case for Rudy

To the extent that I understand how most Republicans think, it would seem that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes closer to the Republican ideal than any of the other viable Republican candidates. They are all good and decent men who would be better for America than either of the Democratic front-runners. But it is difficult to see, from a conservative- and Republican-values perspective, what major shortcoming Giuliani brings as compared to the other candidates. And given the obsession of liberal news media with publishing negative reports about Giuliani and frequent praise of John McCain, it would appear that it is Giuliani whom Democrats most fear as the Republican presidential nominee.

Leggi tutto l'articolo di Dennis Prager su Real Clear Politics.

Diffidate delle imitazioni

Viva Rudy

Giuliani insegue il voto ispanico nel Sud della Florida.

Jon & Rudy

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that accomplished actor Jon Voight has endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President of the United States and will campaign on his behalf in both Florida and California later this month. Voight, who earned both an Oscar and Golden Globe for his role as a quadriplegic Vietnam Veteran in the 1978 movie “Coming Home” and numerous nominations for other roles, has been a powerful presence on the silver screen for almost four decades.

“America is approaching one of its most important elections in history and we must elect a leader with the strength and resolve of Rudy Giuliani,” said Voight. “His commitment to keeping our military strong and his track record of transforming New York makes him the right man at the right time for our country.”

Endorsement di Jon Voight per Rudy.

Fox News Sunday/3

Fox News Sunday/2

Fox News Sunday/1

Pompano Beach, Florida

Giuliani Pushes Hard in Florida


MIAMI – “Florida is Rudy Country,’’ the new signs and stickers say hopefully. Rudolph W. Giuliani, trying to put his humbling losses in Iowa and New Hampshire behind him, kicked off a three-day-bus tour of his must-win state – providing a second bus for journalists to follow him for only the second time this year – by speaking about his relationship with God at El Rey Jesus, an evangelical mega-church and riding a fire truck along the route of the Three Kings Parade in Little Havana.

Mr. Giuliani, who in the past has tended to keep his faith private, quoted the Bible and opened up about religion at the church, where he gave a sermon-like version of his stump speech, and at one point clapped along as the choir rapped “I’m somewhere in the future and I look much better than I do right now’’ to a hip-hop beat. “I have deep respect for the power of faith,’’ Mr. Giuliani said at the church. “I received a religious education for most of my life, until the time I attended law school. And as you realize, law school is not a religious education.’’

“But up until then I started every day of class making the sign of the cross, praying to Jesus, praying to Mary and asking for help, asking for assistance, and it built into my very being an understanding that we have to pray for help, that we have to pray for guidance, we have to pray to seek God’s will, and we have to pray to make us better people, to live the life that God wants for us,’’ he said. Giuliani supporters along the parade route in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood. And Mr. Giuliani, ho is distributing fliers here talking about his faith, as he did in Iowa but not in New Hampshire, said that the seeing the church reminded him of “how faith can transform lives, making families stronger, making communities better, giving people of despair, hope, and giving people a much better understanding of what life is really all about: service to God, and service to others.’’

(...) Mr. Giuliani continues to place all his hopes on winning Florida’s primary on Jan. 29 – which has left him somewhat marginalized both by his distant losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, and by the fact that the other Republican are taking up most of the political oxygen with their hard-fought contests in Michigan and South Carolina. Mr. Giuliani drew a healthy crowd at a senior center in Bradenton on Saturday night, and got a warm reception at the parade in Little Miami (...).

At times Mr. Giuliani seemed to joke about his circumstances. At a dinner in Port Charlotte on Saturday night, he was urging the audience to vote early – Florida permits early voting, beginning Monday – when a woman in the audience called out, “I already voted, by absentee ballot.’’“Do I have a vote?’’ he asked, and as she indicated that he did, he said: “At least I won’t get wiped out! That’s great!” On Sunday morning, in the church, he spoke about his campaign as “a test of faith’’ And his strategy of waiting for a late win is testing the faith of some supporters. “I’m running for president of the United States,’’ he said. “It is marathon, not a sprint. And in many ways it’s a test of strength, and it’s a test of faith. The Bible reminds us, Joshua 10:25, fear not, be strong and of good courage. That’s the way to face the future. Whatever is ahead, we don’t know. Anything can be challenging us. Good, bad, difficult. But if we believe in God, fear not, be strong, and of good courage, that is the way to provide real leadership.”

“That’s what I’ve strived to do all of my life,’’ he said. “I’ve faced odds that were at times seemingly impossible. Situations where people had given up hope. But we didn’t Listen to the doubters. We didn’t listen to the naysayers. You know how many of them there are: it can’t be done, it hasn’t been done before, we can’t handle
this, we can’t accomplish this, no one’s ever done it before. Oh, there are so many that are naysayers. But don’t listen to them. Don’t pay attention to them. Fear not, be strong, and of good courage.’’

Michael Cooper, The Caucus (NYT).

Rudy with Sean Hannity

First Day

Norquist, le tasse e Rudy

Il taglio alle tasse proposto da Giuliani rappresenterebbe un gigantesco salto in avanti per i contribuenti americani e per l'economia degli Stati Uniti. In particolare, il taglio della corporate income tax e dei capital gain sarebbe esattamente quello di cui abbiamo bisogno per evitare una fase di recessione. In più, il piano di tagli alle tasse proposto da Giuliani porterebbe alla creazione di un sistema alternativo (FAST: Fair and Simple Tax) che potrebbe, di anno in anno, essere scelto dalle famiglie americane e dai piccoli imprenditori; un sistema a tre aliquote (con quella massima al 30%) basato soltanto sulle deduzioni più utilizzate. La maggior parte degli americani, se liberi di scegliere questo sistema semplificato, opterebbero per esso senza più tornare indietro. Per anni Hong Kong ha utilizzato un sistema fiscale alternativo di questo tipo e la maggioranza dei cittadini lo ha utilizzato con soddisfazione.


Il presidente e fondatore degli Americans for Tax Reform, Grover Norquist (*), commenta entusiasticamente il piano di riforma fiscale presentato, qualche giorno fa, da Rudy Giuliani. E, sul sito di ATR, comunica che Giuliani (a differenza di John McCain, Fred Thompson e di tutti i candidati democratici) ha firmato il pledge con cui si impegna ad opporsi a qualsiasi aumento delle tasse se eletto presidente. Secondo Norquist, il piano di Rudy porterebbe "al più grande taglio delle tasse nella storia americana" ed è il progetto "pro-growth" più convincente tra tutti quelli presentati dai candidati repubblicani alla presidenza.

Insieme al giudizio estremamente positivo degli Americans for Tax Reform, è arrivato anche l'appoggio del Club for Growth. Il presidente del think-tank liberista di Washington, Pat Tooney, ha diffuso un comunicato ufficiale in cui definisce il piano di Giuliani "una proposta coraggiosa ed innovativa che ricompensa il lavoro e il merito, incoraggia gli investimenti e promuove la crescita ecomomica degli Stati Uniti".

(*) Per chi non avesse idea di chi sia Grover Norquist e di quale sia stata la sua influenza nella crescita, politica e culturale, della destra americana, vi invitiamo a leggere un nostro articolo, dal titolo "A lezione di fusionismo", pubblicato circa un anno fa su Ideazione in occasione di una visita del presidente di ATR a Roma.

Cross-posted @ The Right Nation

Manchester, New Hampshire

Liderzago

My Man

My man Rudy Giuliani got smoked in the Republican Iowa caucuses: 4% of the vote, nowhere.Yet as the smoke clears, it’s going to become apparent that Rudy was the night’s big winner. Here’s why.

The actual Republican winner, Mike Huckabee, cannot win his party’s nomination. Huckabee’s strong social conservatism played well in Iowa, where 60% of Republicans say they attend church every week.Outside Iowa, Huckabee will encounter a much less churchy party. Economic conservatives are dismayed by Huckabee’s record as governor of Arkansas: the fifth worst in the nation according to the libertarian Cato Institute.

Security voters worry about Huckabee’s frequent stumbles in foreign affairs. Huckabee’s immediate reaction to the Bhutto assassination was to call for American “apologies” to the people of Pakistan. His campaign later embarrassedly explained that he had meant to convey only “condolences” — not to imply that the United States was somehow culpable in the killing.The race now moves to New Hampshire, where a majority of Republicans want abortion to remain legal. Huckabee will do well to finish fourth in the Granite State.

If Huckabee’s Iowa win did him little enduring good, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s Iowa defeat does him severe and probably irrecoverable harm.Romney staked his entire campaign on a big Iowa win. He repositioned himself on the issues to appeal to Iowa’s social conservatives. He spent lavishly: at least $7 million, as compared to Huckabee’s $1.4 million. And yet Romney was crushed by Huckabee, 34%-25%.

Badly damaged, Romney now proceeds to New Hampshire. New Hampshire adjoins Massachusetts. These are Romney’s neighbors, practically his constituents. If he cannot win there, he cannot win anywhere. And Romney is running an average of two points behind John McCain.

So is it then McCain who triumphed in Iowa? That’s certainly the impression you would get from the national media, who adore the maverick war hero. McCain won the New Hampshire primary in 2000, and he will probably win again in 2008. His quirky independent politics suit a state whose license plates urge: “Life Free or Die.”Yet McCain faces severe constraints outside New Hampshire. He still polls at less than 20% among Republicans nationwide. Many Republicans remember that McCain nearly accepted the Democratic vice presidential nomination in 2004. Despite McCain’s strong pro-life record, the National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred Thompson for 2008.

Above all, Republicans remember McCain’s authorship of the detested McCain-Kennedy immigration amnesty — and McCain’s harsh condemnation of those conservatives who opposed him. 28% of Republicans rate immigration as the top issue, more than any other. For these Republicans, McCain is on the wrong side.Nor can McCain realistically hope to get any momentum out of New Hampshire. In the next primary (Michigan, Jan. 15) he polls a distant third. He ranks fourth in the primary after that (South Carolina, Jan. 19). And because McCain’s campaign is broke, he will have difficulty competing in the big, expensive media-market states that vote after January 29.

So who does that leave? Not Fred Thompson. He finished a dismal third in Iowa — and his aides are already telling journalists he will soon quit the race. No, it leaves Rudy. Rudy’s campaign has gone badly in recent weeks. He dropped 10 points among Republicans in early December, damaged by allegations that he had improperly billed city agencies for security costs on visits to his future wife. The allegations have since been disproven and retracted, but the mayor’s standing has not yet recovered.

Still, Giuliani continues to poll first among Republicans nationwide. Republicans rate him the most electable of the candidates. He and McCain are the only two candidates who beat Hillary or Obama in head-to-head poll match-ups. Rudy is the most popular Republican in New Jersey, a must-win state for the GOP in 2008.

With Thompson sunk or sinking, with Romney faltering and listing, it is Rudy who has the best chance to position himself as a viable alternative to the unelectable Huckabee. But a chance is all he has, not a certainty.Giuliani faces one severe obstacle to the nomination: He is pro-choice in a pro-life party. He cannot afford a second obstacle. Giuliani has to move now to align himself with the Republican voting majority on the immigration-reform issue. Immigration is a huge concern for Republicans in South Carolina — and given Huckabee’s dismal record on illegal immigration, the issue offers Giuliani a chance to do well in what might otherwise look like a natural Huckabee state.

If Giuliani can beat the odds in South Carolina, he will be superbly positioned to start amassing big delegate totals in Florida, California and New Jersey, when those huge states come into play in February.The Clash have a song: Rudie can’t fail. That’s going too far. But after Iowa, no Republican has a better chance to succeed.

David Frum, National Post.

Rudy Time

The biggest beneficiary of the Huckabee win in Iowa is not Huckabee, it's Rudy. The biggest beneficiary of a McCain win in New Hampshire would be Rudy. Romney's strategy was to win Iowa and New Hampshire. He has now lost Iowa. Rudy is waiting to pounce in the next tier of states. That has always been his strategy.

Mark R. Levin, The Corner (NRO).

Karl's Wisdom

Karl Rove commenta la strategia di Rudy Giuliani: "E' una strategia interessante. Bisogna ricordare che nel 1992 Bill Clinton vinse le sue prime primarie in Georgia, durante il Super Tuesday. E nel 2008 il Super Tuesday arriverà molto prima di quanto non avvenne nel 1992. Voglio anche far notare che nel 2000, per John McCain, non partecipare ai caucus dell'Iowa non fu affatto fatale".

cross-posted @ The Right Nation

Des Moines (Iowa). C’erano tutti tranne uno, ieri notte in Iowa, al primo caucus elettorale del lungo e laborioso ciclo politico che nel novembre 2008 porterà all’elezione del nuovo presidente degli Stati Uniti. (...) Tutta l’America sembrava fosse in Iowa, tranne una persona. Non una qualunque, ma il candidato che i sondaggi nazionali continuano a indicare come il favorito del gruppo repubblicano: Rudy Giuliani. L’ex sindaco di New York non si è curato del caucus e ha trascorso la vigilia in New Hampshire e il giorno del voto in Florida. La strategia di Giuliani è perdere l’Iowa per conquistare l’America.

La scelta è stata in parte obbligata dal calendario e dalla tradizione politica dei primi stati in cui si è votato ieri e in cui si voterà nei prossimi giorni, ma è anche una decisione studiata a tavolino dagli strateghi di colui che la neo-obamiana Oprah Winfrey nei giorni dell’11 settembre aveva definito “America’s Mayor, il sindaco d’America”. Giuliani punta sul 29 gennaio, il giorno in cui si voterà in Florida e saranno distribuiti più della metà dei delegati. E poi sul “super tuesday” del 5 febbraio, quando si apriranno le urne negli stati più grandi.

Gli osservatori e un po’ anche i sondaggi cominciano a dubitare di questa scelta nazionale di Giuliani, ma se avrà ragione lui in fututo tutto questo clamore intorno al voto in Iowa, e poi in New Hampshire, potrebbe attenuarsi. L’approccio tradizionale, inaugurato da Jimmy Carter e Bill Clinton, è stato seguito da tutti gli altri. L’idea è che una vittoria o un buon piazzamento in Iowa e New Hampshire garantiscano un’inerzia positiva in termini di spazi tv, soldi e sondaggi necessaria a conquistare la nomination.

La candidatura di Giuliani, malgrado gli scetticismi strategici, resta quella che continua a preoccupare di più il mondo liberal. I grandi giornali non lesinano articoli e inchieste negative, volte a smontare l’immagine di leader efficiente, efficace e risoluto che Giuliani trasmette agli elettori. Il suo ultimo spot elettorale mostra le immagini di attentati terroristici, alternate a manifestazioni di radicali islamici di ogni tipo. Lo spot descrive “un nemico senza frontiere, un odio senza confini, un popolo abusato, una religione tradita, una potenza nucleare nel caos, uomini pazzi pronti a creare disordine, leader assassinati, democrazia sotto attacco e Osama bin Laden ancora minaccioso”. E, infine, conclude: “In un mondo in cui la prossima crisi sta per arrivare, l’America ha bisogno di un leader che sia pronto”.

La stampa però da mesi prova a smontare questa immagine, da ultimo il New Yorker, raccontando un Giuliani inefficiente e autore di errori decisionali che avrebbero potuto salvare parecchie vite l’11 settembre. Nel mondo dei media nessuno crede nelle sue possibilita di vittoria, eppure i democratici sono spaventati. Ai loro occhi Giuliani ha gli stessi difetti di Bush, ma al cubo: si circonda di amici da cui pretende fedeltà assoluta, non ascolta le critiche e adora esercitare fino ai limiti, se non oltre, il potere esecutivo. A New York, da sindaco, governava ingaggiando violente battaglie amministrative con avversari e critici. I liberal si chiedono con terrore che cosa potrebbe combinare nel mondo avendo a disposizione l’esercito e i codici nucleari. Giuliani spera che gli elettori si pongano la stessa domanda, perché saranno costretti a riconoscere che con lui al comando l’America sarà più protetta e sicura.

Christian Rocca, Il Foglio.

On MSNBC, Rudy Giuliani is making a very smiley, happy showing of himself. The result in Iowa could not have been better for Giuliani tactically. Romney has been injured. Huckabee won, but did not apparently win by a huge margin, and there won’t be many other states where evangelicals make up fully three-fifths of the primary electorate. And John McCain did not, it seems, come in third with a surprising showing, but fourth with a very modest showing. If McCain beats Romney in New Hampshire, Romney will have a difficult time going on — but McCain clearly hasn’t yet turned the corner and brought conservative Republicans back in his corner. And Fred Thompson’s third-place showing wasn’t impressive enough to kick his campaign back to life. With no one especially strong on the Republican side through the first few states, the Giuliani strategy of betting it all on Florida on January 29 and the big states on February 5 is looking better than it did a week ago.

John Podhoretz, Contentions (Commentary).

Secondo il Cato Institute, il probabile vincitore delle primarie in Iowa è il candidato che meno vi ha investito, in proporzione: Rudy Giuliani.

Mitt Romney si è talmente impegnato nella tradizionale strategia di vincere nei primi stati a tenere primarie, nella speranza di ottenere un vantaggio psicologico e mediatico, che una sconfitta lo macchierebbe forse definitivamente come un perdente, escludendolo dalla corsa. E i primi tre stati a votare sono quelli più congeniali ad altri tre candidati: Huckabee, McCain, Thompson.
A Giuliani serve soltanto attendere il super tuesday, dove voteranno gli stati maggiori e dove l'ex sindaco di New York ha puntato di più, mentre i suoi avversari potrebbero arrivarvi dopo essersi esauriti ed avere diviso il voto della base repubblicana meno favorevole a Rudy
clipped from www.cato.org

For the Republicans, it's a battle to take-on Rudy Giuliani on Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee must win Iowa, as he won't be winning New Hampshire. Mitt Romney's traditional early state strategy will be in tatters if he loses tonight, as he faces the prospect of losing next week to John McCain. Which leaves Fred Thompson, if he's still in the race, waiting on South Carolina to restart his plodding campaign. Separate winners in Iowa and New Hampshire may strongly reposition Giuliani, despite a dwindling national lead, to face-down his divided, socially conservative opposition
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Looking Good

Lisa Schiffren, su The Corner, ha pubblicato un interessante memo scritto da Brent Seaborn, strategy director di Team Rudy, in cui vengono delineate le linee essenziali della strategia elettorale dell'America's Mayor per le primarie. Vi proponiamo la versione integrale del documento. Tenetene conto, quando domani arriveranno i risultati (con ogni probabilità disastrosi) dei caucus in Iowa.

TO: TEAM RUDY
FROM: BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR
RE: Looking Good
DATE: December 31, 2007

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right - bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old "Carter/Clinton" approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right. As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states. Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November - December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state
Florida 30% 17%
California 29% 15%
New Jersey 38% 12%
New York 40% 12%

The Primary Calendar 2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint. Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars' strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5. For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York - tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy. Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do. The Early States The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates - the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests
Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty
1/3 Iowa 0*
1/5 Wyoming 12
1/8 New Hampshire 12
1/15 Michigan 30
1/19 Nevada 0*
1/19 South Carolina 24
1/29 Florida 57
2/1 Maine 0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state's delegates except Florida's, which will be winner-take-all. Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond's endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida's 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.
State Polling and OutlooksAs noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor's support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle. In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire. The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney's Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney's strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign. New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain's base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race. Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race. Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life an become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling. Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January. Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself. Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win. One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.